In 2023, sun and wind will be the lowest-price electricity source in Turkey

The report titled 'Long-Term Outlook for Turkey's Energy Market' prepared by BloombergNEF was announced at the 'Long Term Solutions to Accelerate Short Term Investments for Turkey's Energy Conversion' meeting organized by SHURA Energy Conversion Center and BloombergNEF.

The 'Long-Term Outlook for Turkey's Energy Market' report prepared by BloombergNEF was announced at the meeting by Katherine Poseidon, the Policy Analyst for Europe, Middle East & Africa. Prepared based on the long term-economic forecasts on a global scale for the energy sector and published annually by BloombergNEF, the report includes the effects of long-term changes on the source types in Turkey's electricity sector. The study examines the investments that can be made in renewable energy sources in Turkey by 2050 and their financial implications.

Having explained the report, Katherine Poseidon said: "According to the lowest cost scenario of BNEF's New Energy Outlook model, 88 percent of Turkey's produced electricity in 2050 can be provided from zero carbon emission sources thanks to reduced technology costs in renewable energy. In 2023, we see that the cost of electricity generated from newly built wind and solar power plants can be cheaper than new coal power plants. Currently, building a new solar and wind power plant is cheaper than operating natural gas combined cycle plants."

According to the results of the study, electricity demand is expected to increase by 126 percent between 2017 and 2050 due to GDP and population growth. As of 2023, Turkey's economy is expected to reduce energy intensity, and greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector are expected to decline despite the rise in electricity demand.

- Between 2018 and 2050, electricity costs of large-scale solar power plants are expected to decrease by 77 percent. In the same period, the cost of electricity generated from wind energy is expected to decrease by 56 percent. This trend reflects the decline in renewable energy costs on a global scale. Furthermore, from the beginning of the 2020s, it enables the energy costs of newly built solar and wind power plants to be cheaper than new coal and natural gas power plants. While more than half of the country's installed power was composed of fossil fuels in 2017, the share of renewable energy in total installed power is expected to reach 68 percent in 2050.

 – Due to fuel prices, financing costs and low capacity utilization factors, the cost of electricity generated from natural gas power plants is higher than that of newly built wind and solar power plants. The cost of electricity generated from combined cycle plants becomes more expensive due to the increase in fuel prices. The analysis predicts that large-scale solar energy investments in 2023 will become cheaper than operating the existing natural gas power plants.

- Between 2017 and 2050, Turkey's installed power is expected to double. While the shares of onshore wind (25 percent) and solar (25 percent) installed power correspond to half of the total installed power, the share of coal installed power is expected to decline to 5 percent and natural gas installed capacity to 4 percent.

- The new installed power investment between 2018 and 2050 is estimated to be around 276 billion dollars. It is stated that 21 percent of this investment volume is related to three natural gas power plants planned to be built in the mid 2020s.

- It is expected that the main source providing flexibility to Turkey's electrical system will be active natural gas power plants for the peak demand expected to correspond to 12 percent of the installed power in 2050. It is stated that it will be possible to generate 88 percent of total electricity from sources that do not cause greenhouse gas emissions through battery storage systems that are another source of flexibility.